April 6, 2025, Suzuka

Prediction score issued Sunday, the 6th.

Pre-race: This falls into the category of easy predictions. There is a one in four chance he wins. A one in two chance he makes podium. He is that good against the rest of the field and Suzuka is the sight of more than one of his breakout drives.

Post-race.

Pre-race: There’s plenty of discussion about George Russell being a dark horse, riding unsuspecting into the midst of constructors and driver championship contention. (It’s only unsuspecting if you haven’t been paying attention.) But Aston, specifically one Lance Stroll, surprised us these last two races. Quietly, without any fuss. Could it be there is maturity and focus coming into the driver and the team? Is the magic of Mr. Newey simply that he is present? (Obviously not. Engineering is not a game of wishing. It is a game of building, where performance is improved by study and applied trial and error.) But could things have settled internally enough at Aston for Lance to find himself not only in a car that can go the mile, but he himself has improved? I say, yes. And yes, I also think it’s foolish to rule out Alonso from taking that position as well. So either Aston making 7th or better means I get a point.

Post-race:

Pre-race: Bortaleto doesn’t have the car yet. Doohan and Gasly will stay close, but not break points. Tough weekend for Gasly and Alpine. And while I think Lawson earned that chance at the Red Bull team by his performances last year, this savage decision by RB will take it’s toll. I do think Lawson will thrive with Hadjar over the course of the year.

Why only one rookie? Because six teams, the top four, Williams and Aston will be fiercely fighting for those points. Even Haas is applying pressure. The top four drivers won’t change, just who is on the podium. If I don’t count Haas, (perhaps foolish of me, Ciao! and Rally F1! and all), that’s six teams, 12 drivers, of which only one now has a rookie, competing for 10 spots. Prove me wrong young ones!

Post-race:

Pre-race: Last week was a cheap prediction, that Ferrari would displace a handful of highly capable midfielders from the top ten. Because they are a top-four team. Had it not been for brutal rulings – I mean, come on. That’s four astounding things to happen from the American point of view in one week: three F1 astonishments and, well, not astonishing political things really. But two DQs and Lawson! – Charles and Lewis will be steaming to come back with serious fire.

This week is and is not a crap prediction. It is a crap prediction because had it not been for the penalties, it’s easy to predict a top ten finish for the Ferraris. Except, it’s not a crap prediction because I still stand that Ferrari’s early season strategy hiccups make us all hold our fingers over our eyes. Last week was, in many ways, a painful demonstration of that exact point.

Post-race:

Pre-race: Pure dice rolling here. I expect nothing.

Post-race:

Pre-race: Leaving us all in Ambiguous Conclusion Land. The “I’ve got something to prove” forces and the “I know this track like the back of my hand” forces are too strong both in the cockpits and the paddocks. It will not be definitive, frustratingly so. Simply interesting.

Post-race: